Goldratt continues to predict upturn this year

Just in case you haven't seen this before, Eli Goldratt is pretty sure the manufacturing sector (barring cars / real estate) should spring back within a month or two. There are articles showing up on the net that are reflections on the ongoing publicity from the Goldratt community on "Stop the Insanity."

This one is from the Times of India, Economic Upturn in Two Months: Expert. You can check for yourself at the end of April:

Goldratt says the situation will normalize as the surplus inventories are flushed out. Since retailers typically hold three-four months of inventory, they will start increasing their orders to OEMs from February-March.

As OEMs hold about two months inventory, the component manufacturers will start experiencing increase in orders with a time lag of around a month. Therefore, by April, he says, the drop in orders crisis will come to an end.

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Of course, it depends on what you mean by "crisis". Things normalized in 1933, too, at about 1/3 of what they were.

I hope he's right. Of course, barring two massive parts of the 2007 US economy is kind of cheating.

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